Today, I found a receipt of my first desktop. The configuration mentioned in the receipt is lower than the average mobile phones used now days. This got me thinking that has technology actually evolved as predicted by Moore's law ?? Are there other laws which predict the rate at which technology will change in future ??
So here are a few laws i found with very minimal searching -
1. Moore's law - states that the number of transistors on a chip (read processing power of the chip ) will double every 2 years in the foreseeable future.
2. Rock's law or Moore's second law - states that the cost a chip fabrication plant doubles every four years.
3. Nielsen's law - states that network connection speeds will increase by 50% per year and double in almost 21 months.
4. Kryder’s Law – Mark Kryder estimated that magnetic disk storage density doubles annually.
Let's see if these laws are applicable in my case. Let's compare the desktop which i purchased at that time and what can i buy in the same amount today.
There can be multiple reasons for this :
1. Reducing the size of transistors and accumulating more on a single chip to make it more performant, doesn't seem to be possible at the rate which Moore's law predicted.
2. Even if dumping more transistors is possible on a single chip, but the ROI for such research and manufacturing is no more sustainable at scale.
In either of the cases, Moore's law does not seem to be applicable now.
My guess is that some law similar to Moore's law will be applicable right after the next step jump in technology of computing. Photonic chips and Quantum Computing seem to be probable candidates for the next step jump here.
I am eager to see how this pans out in the future.
So here are a few laws i found with very minimal searching -
1. Moore's law - states that the number of transistors on a chip (read processing power of the chip ) will double every 2 years in the foreseeable future.
2. Rock's law or Moore's second law - states that the cost a chip fabrication plant doubles every four years.
3. Nielsen's law - states that network connection speeds will increase by 50% per year and double in almost 21 months.
4. Kryder’s Law – Mark Kryder estimated that magnetic disk storage density doubles annually.
Let's see if these laws are applicable in my case. Let's compare the desktop which i purchased at that time and what can i buy in the same amount today.
| Component / Feature | 2001 | 2019 (without Inflation) | 2019 (With inflation) |
| Cost (Rs) | 32,830 | 32,830 | ~98,490 |
| Processor | Intel Pentium 3, 933Khz | Intel Core I-5 4440 | |
| CPU Mark | 238 | 6507 | 10732 |
Moore's law basically predicts a geometric series, where the performance should double every 2 years. Considering the above CPU marks, ideally over a period of ~20 years the CPU mark should be = 238 * 2^9 = 1,21,856
But we are far below that number.
There can be multiple reasons for this :
1. Reducing the size of transistors and accumulating more on a single chip to make it more performant, doesn't seem to be possible at the rate which Moore's law predicted.
2. Even if dumping more transistors is possible on a single chip, but the ROI for such research and manufacturing is no more sustainable at scale.
In either of the cases, Moore's law does not seem to be applicable now.
My guess is that some law similar to Moore's law will be applicable right after the next step jump in technology of computing. Photonic chips and Quantum Computing seem to be probable candidates for the next step jump here.
I am eager to see how this pans out in the future.
